Calculated football prediction -
You have your own odds and now need to compare these against the odds from bookmakers. This is the core of value betting which was discussed in a previous article. If you get value, then you bet — although you may wish to qualify out some bets by doing additional research to see which players are injured, motivational factors, played in Europe mid-week etc.
The below is used for illustrative purposes, but gives you an indication of the type of thing you may find when comparing the odds.
In this scenario, the value is with backing the draw, backing the Aston Villa win and backing Under 2. Now go make some profit! If everything looks OK with the model, you will then need to expand it to include the same calculations for every other game in that league.
Rather than use the same table, it makes sense to set up another nine of these tables so that you can do one for each league game. It will be time consuming to start with, but try to get to a point where the spreadsheet can be as automated as possible — a version 2.
For instance, with my model, I input the fixtures, then the attacking and defensive metrics are calculated automatically. This is then pulled through to another sheet where the Poission Distribution formula calculates all of the odds.
I then only need to manually add the odds for all of the games directly from the bookies, then the spreadsheet tells me which bets to place.
I have also expanded my model to include Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and Bundesliga fixtures, as well as used it previously for MLS and Brazil Serie A. As games progress and results are known, you will need to include these in your calculations.
If your model is working on data from last season and not including data from this season, then it is likely to be out of date. In Steps 2 and 3, we used either a list of results or the league table to work out the numbers of goals and averages.
You need to find a way of incorporating these most recent results in your calculations. I simply add these to my list of results and ensure the formulas cover the new results. You may also choose to remove old results that you deem to be too long ago and now redundant.
For example, if your model is based on 38 games 19 home, 19 away , then you would need to add the most recent home game whilst deleting the oldest home game to keep it at And there it is, your own predictive football model.
Obviously I will give a couple of caveats at this point as no predictive model can be spot on or take into account every factor in the world. There are a few points to consider. The model uses past data to predict future results.
The accuracy of this method is open to debate. Does something that happened six months ago with different players in different weather conditions really help us understand what will happen?
Happy betting! Alan hails from Northern Ireland and is an avid fan of all sports. Alan passionately covers everything from the latest regulatory developments across the globe to tips on the latest football matches. Arbitrage betting is a modern betting strategy where you can use the huge selection of online bookmakers to cover all outcomes and secure a profit.
Sports betting is about having fun but everyone wants to win too! Our experts will guide you through the best strategies to find value and beat the bookie. American or moneyline odds are commonly used by sportsbooks in the US.
If you want to understand American odds and how to use them, read more here. Fractional or UK odds are the most popular type of odds offered by bookmakers in the UK and Ireland. Find out how to understand fractional odds here.
Fractional Decimal Moneyline Hong Kong Indonesian Malaysian. GB EN. Home » Strategies » Poisson Distribution. Take your football predictions to the next level. Join Over25Tips Premium and start winning! Home » Blog » How do I interpret football prediction odds?
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Most Important Stats Prediction Skills Best Way to Bet Interpret Odds Predict Football Matches Mastering BTTS Predictions Analyzing Key Performance Indicators Understanding the Different Types of Football Predictions.
How football odds are calculated? The bookies are responsible for calculating football odds. They use information from these teams to determine their odds, including their forms, recent results, injuries, etc.
Conclusion Soccer predictions are one of the easiest predictions that bettors can easily understand. You must also develop special tips and strategies to help you succeed with your predictions. We also presented the best bookmakers in Nigeria to wager your bets.
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ACCURATE Football Predictions Today to CASHOUT BIG (02/03/2024)Calculated football prediction -
Each type of odds is used in different parts of the world, so it's important to understand how to interpret each type. Fractional odds are commonly used in the UK and Ireland. They are represented as a fraction, with the first number indicating the potential payout and the second number indicating the amount of the bet.
Decimal odds are used in Europe and Australia. They are represented as a decimal number, which indicates the potential payout for every unit bet. For example, if a team has odds of 2. American odds are used in the United States. Once you understand how to interpret football prediction odds, you can use them to calculate the potential payout of a bet.
To calculate the potential payout, simply multiply the amount of the bet by the odds. We use cookies to enhance your experience in our web site. By using our services, you agree to our use of cookies.
I Understand. Take your football predictions to the next level. Join Over25Tips Premium and start winning! Home » Blog » How do I interpret football prediction odds? Best teams for Over 2.
West Ham, 8th with 39 points, recently ended their winless streak with a win over Brentford. Both teams are expected to score in the upcoming match. Germany - Bundesliga. Union Berlin.
Borussia Dortmund. The ups and downs continue again and again for Borussia Dortmund. Union Berlin have been in a really good form lately. We expect both teams to score in this match. Italy - Seria A. Udinese to win. Udinese is a team that can surprise, but also a team that has no luck.
They are at the bottom of the table and every point is worth gold. At home, they achieved only one win in the league five rounds ago against Bologna. Salernitana are bound to drop whatever they do by the end.
We expect Udinese to get all three points here. AS Roma. Roma to win. Monza is a team that makes some of the lowest scoring duels in the league.
On average, they score 1 goal per game as a host. We don't expect Roma to score much here either. A minimal win by 1 goal is possible for them. Spain - La Liga. Real Madrid. Real Madrid to win. It's going to be a match which we think Real Madrid is going to win. The climate of tension that is going to preside over the match we think is not going to affect them.
We even think it is going to harm Valencia more and we see Real Madrid wanting to finish the League before the Champions League match they have with Leipzig and especially with a potential quarterfinal. We think that Madrid is going to take the initiative because they have a very good streak of results excluding the draw against Rayo.
Valencia usually has bad results against the big ones. France - Ligue 1. This is a match which, despite Clermont being in the bottom, we think they are going to score since they have scored in their last four games played at home.
Marseille, despite having changed coach, still has not won away from home. What is expected is a more even match than what the odds say and both teams scoring has a lot of value. Want even more top predictions? What are Mathematical Predictions Our mathematical football predictions are created on the basis of complex computer calculations with a specially modified algorithm.
How can we make Profit from them The most important thing before we place a bet is to be informed. We use cookies to make your browsing experience easier and to show you content that may be of interest to you.
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