The only change to the course for the tournament is to the 10th hole. It had been one of the most difficult holes on the course, a yard par 4.

But now, 20 yards have been added and it becomes a scoring opportunity as a yard par 5. PGA National will now play to a par 71 and stretches out to roughly 7, yards. Originally a Tom and George Fazio design and since redesigned by Jack Nicklaus, the golf course plays longer in practice, however, because of a number of forced carries over water and the seemingly ever-present wind that shows up for this event.

The forecast is calling for winds anywhere between mph over the course of the four days. This boils down to the majority of the approach shots coming from the window of yards.

I have incorporated Putting Bermuda Grass and Scrambling into my handicap this week but the emphasis lies with Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Ball Striking and SG: Off the Tee, with some Bogey Avoidance mixed in too.

I used more than a handful of other golf courses this week that show similarities in layout and also crossover success: Silverado in Napa, The Renaissance Club in Scotland, Riviera Country Club, Royal Liverpool, TPC Craig Ranch, Detroit Golf Club, and Waialae Country Club in Hawaii.

An has been off to a great start in the season, finishing fourth at Kapalua, losing in a playoff the following week at the Sony Open, and then taking 16th most recently at the Genesis Invitational. He also has posted two top-5 finishes here at PGA National.

Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 14th in this field for SG: Off the Tee and is in the top 26 for Hole Proximity from yards. He also owns a third-place finish at the Fortinet Championship in Napa and a fourth in the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club. Current form, course form, and results on related courses all look to be in line for the former Cal Bear.

Prior to that, Cole finished fourth in Napa and just a few weeks ago, recorded a top finish at the Genesis Invitational at Riviera. He owns an excellent short game and over the last 24 rounds, ranks seventh in this field for SG: Approach and fourth in Hole Proximity from yards.

As with An, with Cole we have current form, course form, and related course success. Other than a missed cut in Phoenix, Poston has been maybe the most successful player on Tour to begin the season. He was fifth at The Sentry, sixth at The Sony Open, 11th at the American Express, 20th at Pebble Beach, and 10th at Riviera.

The stats are very solid across the board and here, he will be reunited with his favorite putting surface, Bermuda grass, which produced top-6 finishes in consecutive weeks earlier this season in Hawaii.

It appears I may have found an outlier number here on the Canadian side as I am mostly seeing prices around 45 or now. The changes in the golf course make building a model for this week more difficult.

If we used our models from last year, we would be factoring in driving accuracy a lot more than we are this year. With the added par 5, we need to include par 5 scoring as well. Course history has been a big factor over the years here, but the course changes may loosen that up a bit.

My model is going to rely on Florida scoring, strokes gained on approach, Bermuda putting, strokes gained around the green, sand save percentage, distance from the edge of the fairway avoiding big misses off the tee into the water , and PGA National history. The Champion course at PGA National has hosted the Honda Classic and now Cognizant Classic every year since Course Changes: The long par-4 10th hole has been converted to a yard par 5.

The Champion Course has added a significant amount of fairway to the course. The rough has been cut down to 2 and ¼ inches from 3 inches.

Past champions: Chris Kirk , Sepp Straka , Matt Jones , Sungjae Im All odds from BetMGM. He has eleven top-three finishes since earning his PGA Tour card without winning. He finished T16 here in , so he has experience at PGA National and gets the bonus of another par 5 to dominate.

He has to be better around the green to contend here, but he has shown the ability to make birdies and save pars from off the green at major championships. Cole gets a big boost with his putting numbers on Bermuda greens and in the distances needed for this golf tournament.

He had some injuries last year that contributed to his inconsistency, but he is starting fully healthy. He won here as a long shot in and had a hard time as defending champion, missing the cut.

He gained over eight strokes on approach last week, and only a shaky putter kept him from contending. I expect him to bounce back this week on the Bermuda greens and contend for another win at PGA National. His putter has gone cold, and his iron play has been below his standards.

He enjoys PGA National with four straight made cuts with a win and a T5 in his last two tries. He gained across the board, with ball striking being particularly strong as he gained more than 7. His putter was an issue for him early this season as he is trying to establish himself as a PGA Tour member.

He worked his way inside the top five on the Aon Swing 5 to get a toehold on the final position to qualify for Bay Hill, and he will need to build on that this week to fend off the likes of Doug Ghim, Erik van Rooyen, and Maverick McNealy. He looked good playing for charity, but paying this much for Rory McIlroy means he has to win or come in second with a huge DFS score to pay off.

I like the new pricing for these tournaments because it changes how we think about building lineups. Leaving cash on the table is not a bad thing if you are going to fade McIlroy this week.

The move back to Bermuda greens should bring his game back to life. He did gain more than 3. The former winner at PGA National may not have such an advantage with his accuracy off the tee with the changes, but he is still in play for me.

He has some nice course history here at PGA National with a 4th place finish in and should bounce back with the putter on the Bermuda greens. He has gained strokes on approach in three straight but has been on and off with the putter for a while now.